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大枕头 - 2008-7-7 9:14:00
近期以来，有人将“大小非减持”描述成对中国股市威胁最大、似乎无法解救的“堰塞湖”，前不久，股市也因之毫无抵抗连收十条阴线，后来甚至击穿2700点。因为这个原因，市场人士不仅对年内指数下跌空间作出了令人恐惧的判断，还对未来3年中国股市走势作出了极端悲观的预测。市场如此悲观，股市如此疲弱，果真应该归罪于“大小非”吗？
问题是，“大小非现象”全世界都有，并非中国独有；全球的产业资本的成本都低，也非中国独有。美国全流通的股票并非都在实际流通，它们的大部分还是锁在大股东那里，很少有抛售的案例发生。那么，应该如何正确看待中国的“大小非”呢？
如果大家不健忘，去年年初泸州老窖大股东二十几元大幅减持了泸州老窖股票，而后来该股票却涨到76.60元；中信证券“小非”们从十多元就开始减持中信证券股票，而中信证券股价却越减持越涨，最后涨到117.89元。那时市场观点如何？是将股价能涨归功于全流通！
反过来大家也不应该健忘，股权分置改革之前，沪市跌向1000点，市场人士却恐惧地将底部看到700~600点。那时市场观点如何？恰恰是将当时股价的非理性下跌归罪于股票不能全流通！
6000多点时，2007年动态市盈率近50倍，机构却将指数看到8000点、10000点；近段时间，指数已经跌去大半之时，市场观点却反而如此悲观。是6000多点风险大还是3000点之下风险大？笔者怀疑市场机构投资者的智商。
当前股市低迷之时，尤其是市场目前更为恐惧的“小非”大量分散结构的个股，其抛压更是十分巨大。是“小非”打压，还是机构自己吓自己？
事实上，我们是否可以另眼看待这类个股低迷——正好是股权收购的大好时机，股权极为分散的“小非”集结个股，不正好为市场化的购并带来好机会？我们是否还可以看到这类个股的“大小非减持”常常会给有心的价值投资者带来非常好的投资良机？
前不久，上证指数2700多点之时，而全流通“小非”比例排前的中国平安，其股价仍基本保持在48元之上，相对于成本仅有几元的“小非”，套现压力似乎可以想象。可是，大家有没有注意到，今年3月25日，上证指数3522点之时，中国平安创出的低点就达到48.30元。而上证指数今年从3月25日以来的跌幅却高达22％之上。
再看7月2日中国平安的逆势跌停，原因也不是“大小非减持”，而是市场对其可能的巨额投资亏损的担忧。因此，决定股价涨跌的最重要因素仍然应该是：一、投资者情绪，二、上市公司投资价值。而不应该是“大小非”。
笔者以为，市场非理性上涨，仍然源于股市参与者的贪婪，非理性下跌的罪魁仍然源于股市参与者的恐惧。当然这个“股市参与者”，既包括社会公众投资者，也包括“大小非”。这个道理早已经被股神巴菲特所总结。
许多分析师预测，上证指数2700点，沪深300指数股2008年整体动态市盈率约为16倍，与美国道指已经完全接轨，大大低于标准普尔500指数约20多倍市盈率。相对于持续高增长的中国经济，当前A股股价难道还没有被严重低估？
作为价值投资者，当前我们应该贪婪，还是应该恐惧呢？ （荣生）
■链接
什么是大小非减持？
所谓大小非减持，指的是大小非流通股股东减持。企业的股份分为流通股份和非流通股份，由于股改以后，非流通股份可以流通，那原本持有非流通股份的股东会抛售这些股份来套现，这就是减持。一般持有非流通股份占公司总股本5％以下的称为小非，大于5％称为大非，大非一般是战略投资者，不会轻易抛售，但是小非则不然，只要非流通股变成可以流通，一般都会抛出套现，从而导致股价的波动。
支持 - 2008-7-7 9:15:00
或许是真的。
shiltouzi001 - 2008-7-7 9:42:00
怎么样成为先知的投资者？
当前市场非理性走势让你何去何从！！
汰弱留强 ， 择机入市 ， 择优入市 ， 有选择性建仓 ，落袋为安 。
如何把握未来的市场主流 ，回避调整风险 ，投资者如何控制市场风险 ，空仓者如何择机入市，持股者如何对股票进行操作，和我们携手，打造一个全新的双赢模式。
1、资金及股票帐号由你自己掌控；
２、负责通知你股票进出的数量时机和价格；
３、不用先付费用，等你盈利后再结算；
４、你是上班的可以电话及时通知你买入和买出
网上详细咨询： 8 9 3 5 4 8 8 2 8 《股市导航》
游客 - 2008-7-8 15:12:00
我是股票丫头，爱玩股票的加我哈QQ972466127帮你赚钱啦~~~~~~
haojinquan - 2008-7-9 13:03:00
股市是一个看起来赚钱容易实际赚钱非常艰难的市场，但又充满人性诱惑的市场，每一个参与者都认为自己比别人更聪明或更幸运，其实这是一种假象。从较长一段时期来看注定百分之九十五甚至更多的人会亏损，这就是股市的游戏规则和生态环境，世界各地的股市都不例外。股票市场上真正能稳定获利的人是极少数，是一种稀缺资源。股市有风险，投资需谨慎。先见之明、自知之明是开拓者必须具备的秉性！而往往在股市中亏钱的就是那些没有任何优势却又自以为很聪明的人。
QQ：869585023 股票导航
游客 - 2008-7-16 5:56:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 11:58:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 12:14:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 12:33:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 13:17:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 13:39:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 14:02:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 14:26:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 14:44:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 15:56:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 16:22:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 16:53:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 17:19:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 18:38:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 19:05:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 19:32:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 20:01:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 20:27:00
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游客 - 2008-7-16 20:54:00
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