金融论坛 [大盘交流] 6月23日本周操作策略---大盘龙头已现身

苦难的人 - 2008-6-23 8:20:00

本周大盘回顾：
本周大盘震荡下跌，用一句话形容就是剧烈波动，全周波动幅度在2700--2900的上下200点范围内波动看幅度正常再看单日，周三大盘向上145点，周四就出现向下跌192点周五再次出现振幅8%的走势在后三天内，大盘剧烈波动幅度为历史少见，同时成交量开始出现放大说明市场开始今若多空搏杀阶段，已经不是一边倒的阶段了。
技术指标上macd开始绿柱缩小，kdj底部开始金叉rsi也开始从底部相中轴靠拢，从日线上看说明市场短期具备了反弹条件。但是日线往往存在片面成分，所以还要结合周线，周线目前技术指标还没有出现回暖迹象，所以现在还不能确认大盘见底。

下周大盘操作策略：
下周大盘走势微妙，周末信息面变化较多最一个弱势的市场影响可能会比较大，但是也是观察市场到底有否能力转强反弹的关键点，所以下周初大家要观察是否大盘会受到周末信息影响出现同向波动，如果出现同向大振幅说明市场没有见底，如果出现同向小振幅，那么大家可以少量操作但是不要重仓，仓位控制1/3强为主。如果出现反向走势那么大盘目前位置短期见底概率增加，大家可以将仓位提升到50%。
技术上本周大盘最高点基本上都是在上摸一个重要压力线后没有站稳，而出现下降，这条压力线就是530探出的市场底跟前期2990点的连线，目前位置该压力线在2870附近，如果下周有连续三天站稳2870那么建议大家可以加仓到2/3如果没有建议控制仓位不动。另外下周是从3786以来下跌的第8周，所以也有可能在下周出现一个短期底部。所以下周大家密切且观察吧。
日线走势是两颗放量阳线夹一颗缩量的阴线，走势上应该属于大资金进场的走势，所以如果确实是那么下周一市场表现可能不应该太弱，（我指的弱是大盘大幅下跌100点以上）。如果没有表现这么弱说明市场内部结构在发生变化了，所以需要大家密切观察。

下周操作项目备选：
从上周的市场情况看，如果未来存在一次机会的话那麽龙头品种基本已经出现了就是中国石化，原因是，目前盘内所有的机构公认的没有分歧的品种只有中国石化，因为无论是金融地产目前机构都有分歧一部分认为估值便宜了可以作，一部分认为虽然静态看便宜了科室目前的宏观情况导致明年后年这个价格是否便宜持怀疑态度所以金融地产有分歧那么就不是大盘龙头，只有中石化目前在市场的分析大家基本上能够达成共识。就是由于受到国家价格管制导致企业业绩大幅下滑，这个市所有人都知道的。同时由于这次调整完成品油价格后那么所有人都知道对中国石化业绩影响负面，那么对未来如果继续上调肯定所有机构也都知道业绩增长会到多少，而且前期在业绩不景气。大盘大幅下跌等种种作用下，股价基本上也是单边下跌，所以当国家开始上调价格的时候所有人都会预期他转好，而且开始提价就意味着未来仍有继续调价的机会。所以如果未来在能够配合国际油价下滑，那么该项目龙头将一飞冲天。所以本人建议目前中石化已经具备了龙头的基础那么大家就等油价下调吧，什么时候下调什么开始飞天。
其他品种由于目前盘内基本上所有的品种跌幅都不小了，那么这种下跌意味着很可能出现错杀品种，而且如果有行情的话那麽最先启动的一定是错杀，而且业绩增长尤其是中期业绩大幅增长的品种，其他条件本人在周四的文章中已经给出了建议结合上述条件抓紧做好功课选出备选项目，本人还是坚持本周的一句话，就是目前是观察跟学习的好机会建议大家好好利用别等行情来的时候措手不及。

本周末消息面解读：
1，本周末最大的消息还应该是美国周末下跌220点以及国内有效跌穿12000点整数关，未来考验前期低点11500是肯定的了而且走势上看是有破开11500出现新低的概率很高。那么对刚刚有点转机的a股无疑压力是有的。
2，关于王益案引出的太平洋事件的全过程在报道中，估计对券商股下周可能有冲击要观察国金跟太平洋。如果券商股下周率先破位市场无疑又开始下一波。
3，中行报告称热钱流入存在抄底a股可能，这个观点跟近期本人观点趋同。本人也认为近期热钱流入是有目共睹的而且目前热钱在银行，但是如果国内的资本市场出现大幅下跌估值不高的时候就小心他们可能会选择投资a股因为目前已经跟标准普尔接轨了，我相信中国目前看企业业绩在下滑也比美国高，所以实际上热钱已经具备了投资资本市场的基础，所以本人建议密切观察该类数据。
4，【星岛网讯】中国人民银行行长周小川6月20日声称，中国近期决定调高国内成品油价格，这可能需要出台更加强硬的政策措施来抑制通胀。说明未来可能还会继续出台政策，估计对投资人的心理有影响。
5，养老保险个人账户不会用来救市的消息，很可能让家产生政府不救市的预期。哎，中国的新闻发言制度怎么还不建立阿，谁都可以说话说了话能否负责到底代表个人还是代表zf呢？依据个人的看法恐怕都会引起一轮风暴，太不成熟了。
上述的消息，基本上都还是偏空，但是下周初的表现也是大家可以看出市场强弱的一个机会，所以看下周初的市场表现吧。

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